Tag Archives: Ireland

Mar 08 2011
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EU politics

Elections in Ireland: The diary of an expat

I have lived in Ireland for the last 1,5 year and have started to explore cultural, social and political aspects of life in the West. I ended up in the most western part of the state, in the county of Galway which boasts with breath-taking landscape and Irish speaking people. However, the country which, in the last decade was labeled as the “Celtic Tiger” and used to be known for its fast growing economy, is now with severe economic challenges and political crisis. The failure of Fianna Fail, to avoid EU/IMF bailout has led to a preliminary election. This short diary is a reflection on my, non-Irish experience of the Irish election…

25/02/2011

Parliamentary election day. Ireland has gone through a dramatic period of time. The Fianna Fail government negotiated (or accepted, depends who you talk to) an EU/IMF bailout which is generally considered as a bad deal among the Irish. Fianna Fail, one of the two major political parties, has held power for the last 14 years, historically opposed to the signature of the Anglo-Irish Treaty. The main counterpart to Fianna Fail is Fine Gael, the party which was in favour of the agreement with the UK. This historical distinction is deeply rooted into voting patterns of the Irish people which from the first glance decide upon the two choices. However, this time it seems to be different. Labour might be an important factor in the formation of the future government with Fine Gael. The public opinion polls predict a major victory for Fine Gael, but there are two possible scenarios; Either Fine Gael can govern on its own or in a coalition with Labour. Having in mind that Fine Gael policies can be simplistically labelled as ‘rightist’, the single government might even be more conservative than the Fianna Fail one. On the other hand, a coalition with Labour could provide a certain balance as opposed to the rigorous policies of Fine Gael. At this point, it is hard to predict the result…

One of the most interesting players of this elections is Sinn Fein which leans more towards the left, but carries the baggage of political association with the IRA. The party leader, Gerry Adams, for the first time tries to get a seat in the Irish Dail. Adams, originally from the North, in this way tries to enter to the republican political arena. However, during the campaign it became pretty obvious that he is not familiar with the political reality in the Republic.

I count on a good success of the United Left Alliance which is a newly emerged political platform constituted of several left wing parties. The Socialist Party of Joe Higgins is one of them and Joe (who btw, stays in my memory as one of the politicians who was very visible opposing the Lisbon Treaty) hopes for a comeback in national politics after his experience as an MEP in the European Parliament.

Tomorrow is a counting day. Votes are distributed according to single transferable vote system which seems to be great fun. The voters give a preference to their candidates by numbering them. In this regard, the number 1 candidate is their first preference, but if he reaches the quota the remaining votes go to the candidate number 2. The same happens if a candidate is eliminated from the game; his votes go to the next candidate which was preferred by the voters. It basically looks a bit like a more complicated Eurovision song contest.

I’ll try to catch “the counting spirit” tomorrow in the Galway’s base: Leisure land. So far 70% of the people voted. What a great result, my compliments to the Irish voters!

26/02.2011

Leisure land, Galway City

It is amazing, but people can actually participate in the whole counting process. Even better, people do participate and there is a certain excitement in the air. I stroll around the tables and check how people make their decisions. Interesting, it seems some of them have no political orientation. Fianna Fail supporters in general do not seem to like to support the candidates who are not associated with the party, so after my observation: no votes for “the others” J. It seems that the major battle will be for the 5th seat. I count on Catherine Connolly, non compromised Galway city councillor. However, there is a long night ahead before having the final results.

The candidates, their canvassers and family members are waiting and talking to people. The media is like a big brother: tracing every little detail. In some corners it is possible to notice some disappointment, the Greens seem to be one of the major losers of this year’s game. Going into bed with Fianna Fail did not particularly help them, but I hope for their comeback. There is need for green policies, not only in the Irish context but also in a global context…

28/02/2011

The Galway West constituency still has not finished with the counting. Several candidates on different occasions requested a total recount. That means that approximately 57.000 votes have to be re-examined again and again. However, the main two names are known: Nolan Derek, the Labour candidate, 28 years old and the grandson of famous de Valera Eamon O’cuiv, a very experienced politician of Fianna Fail are elected. As predicted, the main problems are with the 5th post. This can be see as the main battle of this elections in Galway West. It is very hard to predict about the transfer of the remaining votes. I still count on Catherine. As mentioned before, she is a very uncompromising politician. In the past she was associated with Labour but decided to be independent after a dispute with the party leaders. I do see both Labour and Catherine in the Dail. This is a moment when different opinions can only positively contribute to the future of the country.

At this point, it is also known that there is most probably a coalition between Fine Gael and Labour.

6/03/2011

The Irish Times has just published the news that Fine Gael and Labour reached the agreement to form a coalition. In the next days we will know what this de facto means. Catherine, in the Galway West constituency, lost the 5th seat because of 17 votes. In any case, the election were kind of historical. People did not choose their candidates according to Fianna Fail – Fine Gael lines but instead gave other opinions and political visions a fair chance.

I also have a positive take on the political campaigns. There was no presence of xenophobic voices even though the country faces a very difficult economic situation. Furthermore, the candidates were mostly very respectful to each other and there were no major populist elements in their campaigns or statements. That’s a part I definitely miss in other European countries. The future developments are a mystery, but that was definitely a good start for Irish politics.

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Oct 05 2009
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EU politics

Dear Journalists…

Following the Yes vote on the Lisbon treaty in Ireland the media is full with articles and reports about the EU, the Lisbon treaty and the Irish vote. Unfortunately, journalistic accuracy for EU related topic is not that widespread. At least I get the impression after reading and watching a fair amount of material in the last 48 hours. Here are the most frequent inaccuracies in EU stories these days:

1. There is a difference between the European Council, the Council of the EU and the Council of Europe – just look it up! Try to get your facts straight about the rotating presidency and EU terminology in general.

2. The Polish and  Czech parliaments approved the Lisbon treaty already! Only 2 signatures are missing.  So, please don’t write that both countries  still need to vote on the treaty…

3. And while we are at it: Do your research on the competences of the Czech president (hint: Czech constitution, some basics on parliamentary vs. presidential systems)

4. There is no actual link between the Irish Yes and a European Council President Blair – The treaty merely creates the position of a European Council President and not, I repeat: NOT: EU president, President of Europe etc.) Actually, the position is more like a permanent chairman… Tony Blair seems to be one of the people that are interested in getting the job. So try to get hold of other nominees as well! If you write a opinion piece you might want to check the issue of open nominations and the stopblair petition (more arguments against Blair here).

5. Anyway, forget about the “European Council president” for a moment.  It is much more important who will be nominated for the new Commission. And who will be the next High Representative for Foreign Affairs. All of these jobs are actually more powerful than the European Council president.

Thank you!

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Oct 03 2009
6 Comments
EU politics

Ireland voted YES: But what's next?

Finally, a YES for the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland. At least the second attempt was successful.  So , what’s next? Now it is up to the Polish and Czech presidents to sign the treaty as well.  Lech Kaczinski, the Polish president, promised to sign the text after the Irish voted ”yes’. So this leaves an isolated Vaclav Klaus and a seriously confused David Cameron…

I am pretty sure that the  pressure on Klaus will be enormous. There are already rumors that Angela Merkel is preparing a “diplomatic sweetener” for him, whatever that means… Taking into account that the Czech Parliament ratified the treaty and the Czech president does not have any powers to veto the treaty,  it is his constitutional obligation to sign it eventually (apparently the problem is that the Czech constitution does not specify how long the President is allowed to postpone his  signature). Obviously he will use the argument that he needs to wait until the constitutional court has issued the ruling on a complaint of some senators. But in the end I am pretty sure that he will sign and that he will not have the guts to wait until the Conservatives form a government in the UK (which might happen next summer)…

However, the wider context is noteworthy: After a almost a decade of debate (Laeken 2001, Convention, Constitutional treaty, …) it seems that we end up with this mini reform treaty. I think most of the other major EU treaties contained more far-reaching reforms than this one. Basically only a couple of things are really innovative:  new double majority voting in more policy areas, a strengthened role for the European Parliament, some clarifications regarding competences, and some improvements in the field of EU foreign policy.

One thing is quite clear, there won’t be another big EU treaty for the foreseeable future  given the difficulty to get such a text ratified by 27 member states. A positive side effect might be that we can finally concentrate on policy issues and leave this institutional debate behind us – at least for a couple of years.  However, the Lisbon Treaty is far from being perfect and it is quite possible that it will create a number of institutional problems. The future will bring new challenges and new reforms might be necessary. And let’s face it: every reform needs to be reformed. So how is it possible to address these challenges and ensure further EU reform, even with 30+ member states (and with people like David Cameron)?

One possibility is to move towards thematic treaties. For example a “issue treaty” on climate change, or one on foreign policy or on police cooperation. These treaties would address one specific issue only – which seems much easier to communicate. These treaties would contain a list of competences for EU institutions as well as national institutions. Moreover, such an issue treaty would address the decision making in this specific policy area and  maybe even include  specific policy aims (reducing emission by 30%, creating a new agency or a new position, banning a certain chemical substance,  introducing a certain measure…whatever). One thing must be included however: if a country rejects one of those treaties, everyone must be clear about the consequences. Basically, a rejection would result in an opt out (similar to Schengen, Euro) but with the possibility to join later.  Of course the result would be an even more complex EU. But maybe this is the price to pay for a bigger and more diverse EU…

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Aug 14 2009
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EU politics

The Improved Spoofer’s Guide to the Lisbon Treaty

The Irish referendum is on the horizon. So it is time to explain the Lisbon Treaty (again!). Here it is: The second edition (“Lisbon ’09 – The Rematch version”) of the most entertaining Lisbon treaty paper ever published and of course  it is bigger, better, faster and with Omega 3:  So, enjoy Jason O’Mahony’s  New improved Spoofer’s Guide to the Losbon Treaty. Everything you ever wanted to know about the Lisbon Treaty … and written in “Pub  English”!

Jason O’Mahony explains the reasons behind the guide:

So why write this guide? Because I was so underwhelmed by the Yes side in the last referendum. We were so bad at communicating our message, and at replying to the, let’s face it, tinfoil-inside-my-hat-to-stop-Martian-radio-signals threats coming from elements of the No side. So I decided to do something about it. I wrote The Spoofer’s Guide to the Lisbon Treaty to explain what I understood and felt about an EU that wasn’t the evil monster that the No side were claiming. I put it together with some friends and sent it out, where, judging by the emails I got back from Ireland and the continent and the US, it struck a chord with people.

Here’s the new version. Those of you who read the old one will recognise a lot of it, but there’s also some new stuff in it. It is a biased guide, in that I am biased and support the Treaty, but I’d like to think that it’s not slavish about it.

Read it!

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Jun 16 2009
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EU politics

Irish Lisbon Treaty Guarantees (Draft text)

After several months of rather difficult diplomatic negotiations (see for example here and here), the draft text for the Irish is now available -  Read the draft text here (pdf).

The text will be discussed during the  June summit of the European Council this week in Brussels.

Sorry, no time for further comments. Probably a law degree would be helpful to analyse it properly…

Update: Read more over at The European Citizen blog!

Update: The final text as part of the European Council Presidency Conclusions (pdf)

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Sep 11 2008
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EU politics

Ireland: Post Referendum Research Findings

The long awaited report on the underlying causes of the No vote on the Lisbon Treaty in Ireland has been published.  You can read the complete report here: “Post Lisbon Treaty Referendum Research Findings (.pdf)”

Here some key findings:

  • The main reason for abstaining in this referendum was lack of understanding/knowledge (46%), which is far in excess of any other voluntary or circumstantial reason given for not voting.
  • Much of the Yes vote is underpinned by a strong general feeling of pro-Europeanism rather than Treaty specific motivations.
  • Twenty-six percent of No voters mentioned Treaty specific elements that were of concern to them.
  • The main reason cited for voting No was ‘lack of knowledge/information/ understanding’ at
    42%. There can be little doubt that this emerged as the primary reason for people voting
    No.
  • At a wider level, an EU knowledge deficit is clearly present which has undoubtedly contributed to the No vote.  Knowledge of EU institutions and how they work appears to be particularly low.  The difficulty of advocating a referendum that is based on the premise of institutional reform in this environment is apparent.

So, the report suggests that a lack of knowledge/information/understanding was the main reason for the referendum outcome: At the same time there seems to be little willingness to do something about it:

  • Despite not having a good understanding of  how EU institutions operate, there was fairly limited appetite for additional information, particularly among younger group participants. Few felt that they would realistically take the time or go to the bother to inform themselves in any great detail. Older group participants (those aged 35+), were more open to learning more and felt that if the EU  was going  to become more important to Ireland then it was important for them to be better informed.

Let’s have a look at the ‘issues’:

  • ‘No’ voters were far more likely to believe that erosion of Irish neutrality, end of control over abortion and conscription to a European army were part of the Lisbon Treaty, revealing key cracks in the debate.
  • Loss of Commissioner was also a common concern on the No side.
  • When asked directly, respondents cited the issue of protection of workers’ rights as being
    “very important” more often than any other issue (of a defined set of issues) relating to
    Ireland and the EU. Retaining control over public services in the future was similarly cited.
  • Concerns over specific aspects of the Treaty loom large, particularly perceptions of an erosion of neutrality, the Commissioner issue (which many do not seem to properly understand), Corporate tax and to a lesser degree abortion.

Well, the report clearly did not come up with any surprising results. Most of it has been debated over and over again. So I will not get into the debate whether referendums are useful (hint: they are not!) or whether the Lisbon treaty is too complex (hint: yes it is!) or whether the EU is a big conspiracy theory (hint: it is not).

However, one question is of course still the same: What to do now?  – A new referendum on the same text? No new referendum and a parliamentary ratification followed by an referendum on one or two treaty issues? A new EU treaty and negotiations from scratch? A kind of “Irish Protocol” that addresses the problematic issues despite their irrelevance? The report only suggests that any new vote on an unchanged document would have a negative result again.

The only certain fact is the existence of the “EU knowledge deficit” which is probably a widespread problem everywhere in the EU. I think this is a structural problem that needs to be addressed on different levels: The EU should be included in school curricula and there needs to be a better media coverage and reporting of EU affairs. Of course local, national and European politicians need to explain the role of the EU with more honesty. At the same time the EU needs to engage more people in debating European issues, some institutional reforms would also be helpful … Ok, enough wishful thinking for today!

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Jun 22 2008
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Kosmolinks

Kosmolinks #17

  • The referendum: populism vs democracy

    The idea of the referendum as an instrument of the people’s will rests on pre-democratic foundations, says George Schöpflin. I certainly agree!

  • A better way with referendums

    Interesting idea: Is it possible to introduce a more deliberative approach when holding a referendum? Does “deliberative polling” make citizens more knowledgeable?

  • Instead of bullying the Irish, Europe should be working on plan D – and E

    Timothy Garton Ash actually favours the “Nice plus” arrangement.

  • Yes, they could

    What went wrong for the German Social Democrats? And how can they recover? – Although the article could focus more on the second question it makes a few good points. However, it seems to me that Kurt Beck is the wrong person to deliver “change”… unfortunately the same can be said for a large part of the SPD leadership!

  • WIA Report » Blogger Arrests

    Quite a shocking report: “Unfortunately, one way to assess the political importance of blogging around the world is through the growing number of blogger arrests. Since 2003, 64 citizens unaffiliated with news organizations have been arrested for their blogging activities.”

  • Centre for European Reform: Tough choices to avoid euro-paralysis

    Hugo Brady proposes the most likely outcome of the “EU crisis” after the ‘No’ in Ireland. And he mentiones one interesting point: “Many voters do not see the continuity between EU treaties and think that old guarantees are over-written by new texts.”

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Jun 19 2008
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EU politics

Cameron vs. Brown

Interesting how Gordon Brown defends the EU and the Lisbon Treaty: Conviction or tactics?

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Jun 16 2008
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Kosmolinks

Kosmolinks #16

  • Joschka Fischer: Das vereinte Europa ist gescheitert

    Joschka Fischer has no hope anymore…

  • Wolfgang Munchau – Europe’s hardball plan B for the Lisbon treaty

    “An alternative would be a referendum with a differently worded question, such as: “Do you want to remain in the EU on the basis of the Lisbon treaty?” Of course, this bundles two questions many people would like to answer separately. Yes, stay in the EU, No to Lisbon. But folding the two into a single question is politically more honest because it is Ireland’s only real-world choice.”

  • Robert Kagan – In Europe, a Slide Toward Irrelevance

    Robert Kagan’s take on the Irish ‘NO’ – basically what you would expect from him, but also with a few good points.

  • The fear factory devastated Ireland’s flaccid political class

    “You forgot us in Shannon.” — “Our sons are too good-looking for the army” –”right-wing Catholics” — “leftwing anti-militarists” — “a mysterious group that emerged from nowhere with a great deal of money to spend” — “Imported British Euroscepticism” — “a very efficient factory of fears” — “an extensive menu of anxieties” — “the scattergun of negativity only had to hit one sensitive spot”

  • Will Hutton: Europe must not be derailed by lies and disinformation

    “On top of these there is the political problem that the treaty can’t be rewritten to accommodate specific Irish concerns because it already does; Ireland’s ‘no’ campaigners told lies. The voters’ great concerns had been met. There is a specific protocol that guarantees Ireland’s neutrality and excuses it from membership of any joint European defence effort, if any surfaces. There is no possibility of Ireland being told to enforce abortion. And all states have autonomy over tax policy.”

  • The Irish “no” and the rich-poor/urban-rural divide

    “The Irish ‘no’ – like the 2005 French ‘non’ – shows a clear poor/rich and urban/rural divide. Working-class and rural voters are systematically voting against further European integration. European leaders should take note.”

  • DJ Nozem: Euroblog Coverage: The Irish ‘No’

    A handy round-up about the Irish ‘No’ in the blogosphere…

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Jun 14 2008
4 Comments
EU politics

The Irish 'No' – Problems and Dilemmas

The problems with the Irish referendum:

  • In any representative democracy a document with 271 pages (479 pages in the consolidated version!) of legal text should never be put to a referendum.
  • The method of EU treaty ratification should be the same in every member state.
  • A very weak YES campaign and a quite strong NO campaign.
  • The NO campaign managed to put popular myths on the agenda (with no link to the Lisbon Treaty or even to the EU) and mobilised voters with fears; it seems as if the YES campaign did not take it seriously and did not prepare an adequate answer. Next time: professional campaigning needed!

The problems of the EU:

  • EU has a communication problem… a huge one! And I would include every national politician in this category. In the last 15 years there were too many politicans that constantly blamed the EU (or better “Brussels”) especially when faced with “surprising” EU decisions – and everyone who is a bit familiar with the EU knows that there is no such thing as “surprising” in this slow bureaucracy … Moreover, it is hypocritical for ministers to blame the EU although they actually had a  veto in the Council…
  • EU summits have been coined and perceived as “battles” over national interests. But what about the “European interest”?  Many politicians do not seem to see the bigger picture… The same is true for European parliament elections: National topics are always more important than “European” topics! And the result? A negative perception of the EU,  … surprise, surprise!
  • The media does not spend enough time explaining EU issues.  European politics need to play a much bigger role on national TV as well as in national newspapers and local newspapers across Europe!
  • Education: Quite important but absolutely neglected! EU is practically not existent in school curricula!
  • Unpopularity of the EU is therefore not only a problem of the EU!
  • The Lisbon Treaty is a compromise based on the lowest common denominator.  And this is the problem why it is such a long document and why it is so difficult to understand.
  • After the failed Constitutional Treaty, the Lisbon Treaty was actually Plan B: So there will be no new treaty and issues such as “number of commissioners” and “voting weights” are not likely to be re-negotiated.

The dilemmas after the NO vote in the Irish referendum:

  • If all other EU members ratify the Lisbon treaty it will be an Irish problem, if one country stops the ratification process it will be a European problem.
  • The dictatorship of a minority vs. the dictatorship of a majority. If ratification continues the EU will be blamed for the latter, if ratification stops it will be blamed for the former.

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