However, despite all the talk about the European Council President, this is actually the more important position for one single reason:  The High Rep will be able to use the EU foreign policy machinery including (post EEAS) – Commission staff (RELEX), Council Secretariat staff (including ESDP and CFSP tools plus all the  ‘Special Representatives’) and the newly created European External Action Service.

Moreover the new High Rep will be a Vice-President of the European Commission and chair the Foreign Affairs Councils. Therefore I agree with Simon Hix who said “The president could end up being all prestige and no power, while the high representative is real power and little prestige.” The European Council President only chairs a couple of summits and has no job description – it is not even clear whether he will get office staff… Well, one sentence in the Lisbon treaty could  become problematic:

It is the Council President (President of the European Council) who will “ensure the external representation of the Union on issues concerning its common foreign and security policy”. He shall do that, however: “without prejudice to the powers of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy”.

So, team play will be necessary at least to a certain extent. However, it is very unfortunate that the question of who becomes High Rep depends on who will be chosen as European Council President – and not the other way round!

So let’s have a quick round of possible candidates:

Today, speculations included David Miliband (UK Foreign Secretary -ruled himself out on twitter!), frequently mentioned is also Olli Rehn (EU enlargement commissioner) as well as Ursula Plassnik (former Foreign Minister of Austria) and Dora Bakoyannis (former Foreign Minister of Greece). Several other names have been mentioned in the last couple of months: former External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten, former Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel and former NATO Secretary-General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.

Anyone in there who could be the next High Rep? I think David Miliband could be a good candidate but he might not be experienced enough – and, given his ambition to become the next leader of the Labour party, I doubt whether he is a serious candidate. Let’s ask him in 5 years again!  What about the rest? They all seem rather boring with a lack vision for EU foreign policy. Unfortunately I do not know much about Ursula Plassnik  and Dora Bakoyannis. Chris Patten and Jaap de Hoop Scheffer are certainly well respected in Brussels.  Especially Jaap de Hoop Scheffer could be a serious candidate given his NATO experience – he would be a solid and diplomatic High Rep without being too demanding towards member states.  Olli Rehn lacks experience and being EU enlargement Commissioner may not be enough to get the job. However, a High Rep without political ambition (de Hoop Scheffer) or lack of experience (Rehn) could exactly be the sort of person the European Council is looking for…

But is that everything we can come up with?  The High Rep should be THE foreign policy authority of the EU, with the ability to negotiate deals in the Foreign Affairs Council  – so the person needs to be high profile and should have considerable foreign policy experience.  European Foreign Policy is one policy in which citizens want to see a stronger EU. The new High Rep needs to be able to communicate this clearly and passionately. Moreover, the person is expected to negotiate worldwide – so there we need someone recognizable with a proven track record in international negotiation. (If Tony Blair was serious about a EU job – he should go for that one and not the one with prestige and the misleading title).  So who else could be doing this kind of job:

Joschka Fischer – a former German foreign minister. He would certainly tick all the boxes. He has huge foreign policy experience, is known internationally and with good connections in the Middle East and in the US (after being a Visiting Fellow at Princeton and working in Madeleine Albright’s consultancy). Recently, he started working in support of the Nabucco pipeline. He has been a very charismatic and popular politician – and can still fill conference centres in London, Brussels or Washington! He would certainly be able to give the EU a real voice in foreign affairs. That unfortunately rules him out -  exactly that is not wanted by our dear politicians.

Martti Ahtisaari – a former president of Finland.  Wouldn’t it be great if Obama and Athisaari met and the press could have a headline like “Two Nobel peace prize winners demand…” – certainly Ahtisaari is very knowledgeable and respected internationally. He has an excellent reputation as a conflict mediator (he got the Nobel peace price for that!) and  has been an active advocate of a more powerful EU foreign policy. Again not the best thing to do in the present political climate. He might lack a bit of charisma (compared to Fischer…) which could be seen as an asset by the European Council…

Carl Bildt – the current Swedish foreign minister. Another strong candidate judging on his vast foreign policy experience. He is the only serving foreign minister of all the candidates which is an advantage because connections are important!  However, some (France, Germany) often claim he is too outspoken on Russia. He is a well known blogger and often grabs media attention with some bold statements. Moreover, being in the spotlight of EU politics due to the Swedish Council Presidency might be helpful (although the bold statement could ruin it…).

So, who has realistic chances? At the moment the race seems very open (or the secret is being kept well…) – Jaap de Hoop Sheffer, Chris Patten and  Olli Rehn could be realistic candidates, the joker could be Carl Bildt. Chances are that we get someone that has not been subject of any rumours lately. (The French are suspiciously silent…) And obviously it always depends a lot on who will become European Council President in terms of political and geographical balance…

But one thing is certain: unfortunately the best candidates will have absolutely no chance of getting the job!

The categories:

First, the president should be, well, boring — like Brussels itself. Politicians have knocked down candidates for being too controversial or too outspoken. Second, he should likely hold center-right or Christian Democratic political tendencies, given that Europe itself is headed that direction. Third, he should come from a country that uses the euro — showing full fealty to the concept of the union. Fourth, he should come from a small European country — anything other than Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, which normally dominate the union’s affairs. Finally, two wild-card characteristics: He should ideally speak French and have opposed the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq — if not at the time, then soon afterward.

Read the article (with more less detailed profiles of each candidate) here. Obviously the list is debatable: For example, it seems strange to include Angela Merkel (not boring?) and Anders Fogh Rasmussen but not Mary Robinson… also candidates from the Iberian peninsula might might not be considered since Commission President Barroso is from Portugal, to a lesser extent that might also be true for Polish candidates (Buzek = President of the European Parliament). I was also wondering about the language skills of the contenders… (Most of them fluent in French? – And what about English ?). One important category is missing: The “I made the case for the EU while being in office” – category.
Oh, and  sadly even the analysts (in this case: “assistant editor with a degree from Harvard”) of Foreign Policy fall into the trap of talking about a “EU President”…

With the institutional framework governing the next Commission not clearly defined and dependent on rather uncontrollable factors (i.e. the second Irish referendum scheduled for the autumn), the various names and portofolios are rather speculations. However, they tend to indicate the “mood” in different countries and offer a preview of the negotiation process that will start after the Commisssion President will probably be nominated later today at the European Council.

The debate regarding the next Romanian Commissioners, though not yet very visible in the media, has been taken up by the researchers at the Romanian Centre for European Policies (CRPE), who issued a report entitled: “Romania at the European Council on 18-19 June. Grades for the Romanian “Commissioners” “ The first part of the document is a very good overview of the most important institutional aspects linked to the the new Commission (including the current debates on how many Commissioners there will be and how is the Commission President elected). I find it a very commendable effort to explain all these rather complex issues to the greater public, an initiative that should perhaps be replicated in the media and by other actors.

The second part of the report makes some recommendations as to what position Romania should adopt at the European Council on 18-19 June and, more important, evaluates some of the possible candidates for the Romanian Commissioner position and the likeliness to get some portofolios of interest. The nine possible candidates (including names such as Monica Macovei, former Justice Minister and newly elected MEP, MEPs such as Adrian Severin and Theodor Stolojan, former Romanian Permanent Representative to the EU Lazar Comanescu and current commissioner Leonard Orban) are assessed according to five criteria: experience with EU affairs, CV (competence), political support, integrity and professional authority. The portofolios that Romania might be aiming at are agriculture, energy, transport, regional policy and enlargement, each assessed with medium or small chances of success. Makes me wonder what portofolio does Romania have real chances of getting, as all the ones mentioned above seems to come straight from a wish-list.

While offering a very straight-forward and well-argumented overview of all possibilities, the report fails to come up with a final conclusion and an over-all assessment, linking the possible candidates with likely (matching) portofolios. The task would, indeed, be rather speculative, since there is still a heated debate inside the governing coallition (PDL-PSD) as to which party should nominate the future Commissioner.

Nevertheless, if Romania (still) wants to have a chance in getting a decent portofolio (as oposed to an invented one, like it is currently the case), it should come up as soon as possible with a credible personality with strong expertise in a specific policy field. This will be hard, since political support is, clearly, the vital criterion among the five mentioen above. The more likeley outcome is (like in many other cases, isn’t it?) a compromise candidate, and my guess is that Lazar Comanescu, former Permanent Representative of Romania to the EU might just pass that test. It will be interesting to watch the power play in the run-up to the nomination.

So, we are interested in two things:

1) Who are the likely candidates that are tipped to become European Commissioner? What are the rumours in your country?

2) Who would YOU like to nominate if you had a say? Who would you support as a candidate?

Use the comments on this blog or head over to Jon’s post that already attracted several comments!

Here is my contribution

Answer to 1) In the case of Germany we have seen rumours that Peter Hintze or Peter Altmeier might be the nominee. But also political figures like Wolfgang Schäuble , Roland Koch and Friedrich Merz were mentioned in the press. I think the race will be between Hintze and Almeier who both belong to the inner circle around chancellor Angela Merkel.

Answer to 2) Germany should nominate  Joschka Fischer to become External Relations  Commissioner and eventually the new High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy . (I am aware that this scenario is very unlikely!) The position will be created after the  successful ratification process of the Lisbon Treaty and will replace both, the High Rep for CFSP and the Commissioner for External Relations (another uncertain scenario..).