Why did Germany abstain at the United Nations?
Germany was the only NATO/EU member to abstain together Russia, China, Brasil, India. Result: no common EU foreign policy (Ashton being absent from the wider debate anyway) despite the good opportunity for an interesting ESDP mission. The US seems to support the resolution but does not want to use own military capabilities. At the same time there is an agreement between France, the UK and Italy. It is a missed opportunity for ESDP and EU foreign policy in general. And the reason, strangely enough, is Germany. Moreover, Germany is partly to blame why the it took so long to agree on a UN resolution.
(Sorry for the lack of links and background info and the lack of any sophisticated writing, just think of it as a draft blog post – bit in a hurry at the moment…)
So what is the problem with German diplomacy? A quick explanation:
1. There are a couple of important regional elections in the coming weeks. Hugely important for Merkel’s CDU and it does not look very good. Merkel seems to be inspired by Schröder who won elections with swift decisions and a “no war” attitude. So, Merkel’s decision perform a u-turn on nuclear energy (albeit only for 3 months!) and the the “no” to war in Libya seem to follow that idea. However, I think Merkel completely misjudges the situation. The u-turn on nuclear energy lacks any credibility and does not seem to help the CDU (and first opinion polls do support this view). Libya is not Iraq. Libya is quite an easy narrative, and not as controversial as Iraq so you can’t win popular opinion with it. Afghanistan is unpopular, so the idea to do more in Afghanistan and not support the intervention is Libya is counterproductive.
I think the German population would rather support an intervention in Libya than to abstain as the only Western country. Moreover, supporting a UN resolution would not necessarily involve a commitment to military engagement. Germany could have supported the resolution without contributing (citing the real(!) lack of military capabilities). Support: yes, military involvement: no – that would have been a more successful strategy…
Maybe Merkel/Westerwelle were not sure how people would react to an involvement of the Bundeswehr – or even to a formal endorsement of the intervention in Libya. However, judging on trends in popular opinion at the moment it is easy to come to the conclusion that any controversial decision (i.e intervention) could become a hot issue in German politics. The prospect of defending a war in the three upcoming election campaigns might have been a contributing factor that explains the German position.
2. Foreign Minister Westerwelle is not up to the job. He lacks the political feeling for situations, foreign policy is not really his field of expertise. He often seems uncomfortable with foreign policy. After the elections he should have taken over the ministry of finance and/or economics. And he is the most unpopular foreign minister ever. In Germany, Foreign ministers are always among the most trusted and popular politicians – with the exception of Westerwelle. Is Libya an attempt to become popular again? Oh, and it seems that the Chancellery is the main foreign policy player at the moment. So, the abstention could be a sign of the internal problems of German foreign policy, a disagreement between Merkel and Westerwelle is quite likely.
3. “No war” as a foreign policy principle. Not very convincing after Kosovo & Afghanistan but it might have some influence in the thinking on foreign policy among German diplomats. Especially the rather bad experiences in Afghanistan might have shaped the “no intervention” stance of the German government. A more serious point is that German decision makers are convinced that this “no fly zone” will basically result in a war which might last for quite some time. And nobody in Germany wants to send soldiers on Libyan soil. Not only is it unpopular, there are quite some risks attached to it. Especially after Afghanistan and Iraq the danger of a getting into a conflict that last for several years should not be underestimated. Moreover, there has been very little talk about what constitutes a “success” of the intervention. German decision makers are naturally reluctant without having a clear exit strategy and general strategy what to do after the air strikes! I think these ideas are crucial in understanding the German position.
A last chance for German diplomacy?
The Libyan government just announced a ceasefire (a real chance or Gaddafi trying to buy time?). If implemented (which is doubtful anyway) there might be some negotiations about the future of Libya. Maybe a mediation to discuss an acceptable exit strategy for Gaddafi or some power sharing mechanisms; there might be a UN backed peacekeeping force – everything in flux as Gaddafi seems to be determined to stay in power as long as possible. So, any diplomatic negotiations will mostly happen in the background. Germany could be seen as the only ‘credible western country’ to negotiate between the Libyan government and the opposition/international community. If the German government wants to restore trust and credibility it might a good idea to get involved now. However, it is probably not very likely to happen…not with Westerwelle and Merkel.
Update: Germany rejects Libya ceasefire monitoring role
The supreme dictator Adolf Hitler Khadafi is killing innocent Lybian civilians in the streets all over his country and is it any surprise that GERMANS refuse to help the innocent unarmed civilians being slaughtered? Would Germany lend a hand if these people were Arians?
Germany, you’re showing your true colors and it seems like you only care about yourself. All you have is lame excuses. The rest of the world knows why you don’t help.
… it’s really quite understandable given Germany’s foreign policy discourse and history… they have always been reluctant to conduct foreign policy-making by means of a domestic driven definition of “national interest.” Instead, they engaged in processes of multilateral negotiations that allowed them to co-determine common solutions. A hierarchy of preferences, national interest, and foreign policy behaviour never existed; rather, it was a horizontal structure of simultaneous processes of interest definition and foreign policy-making. Also, Germany relies more heavily on co-determination that self-determination. Thirdly, German foreign policy is guided by ab interest in generating and maintaining a reputation as a reliable, predictable, and dependable partner (given their investment and history within Libya, this would be important for the future). Fourth, German foreign policy seeks to comply with international norms and rules to acquire legitimacy and approval by other states. Foreign policy is driven by both domestic and international norms. Germany also seeks to codify behaviour (rulification) in international relations and strongly believes in the purpose of law to provide guidance (judification). Furthermore, Germany is extremely reluctant to act alone. It always seeks to act as part of an international community such as the UN, EU, WTO, OSCE, or NATO according to its norms. Fifth, Germany seeks to buld long-term partnerships rather than short-term coalitions. Long-term partnerships are characterised by a certain regularity of communication and resistance against backlashes. Again given their dependence on Libya and close bilateral relations, it is not surprising that they are acting with care. Although they aren’t directly involved, they are very much so indirectly i.e. relieving the allied forces of their resources in Afghanistan so as to allow them to further concentrate and reallocate them to Libya. Sixth, Germany absorbs costs by institutional mechanism of social distribution – although many people may have been partly for the intervention, with elections looming and Merkel having lost what was a CDU strong hold for 80 years as a result of a failed electoral ploy over the much debated nuclear issues in reaction to Fukushima, as well as the embarrassment of von und zu Guttenberg, she cannot afford to enter into Libya with the potential of the public/social costs involved further disadvantaging her (albeit perhaps a rather selfish move in that respect). Lastly, but by no means least important, Germany relies more heavily on political and economic tools rather than military tools. As such, it champions long-term peaceful change even when that means sacrificing short-term problem solving. Germany had said from the very beginning, before UNSCR 1973 was imposed, that in their view there was no military solution, only a peaceful political one. They can’t be seen to be turning back on themselves (losing more credibility than they would have in this situation). Instead, they have cleverly indirectly supported the rest of the international community through their alleviation in Afghanistan (an area within which Merkel had also discussed the retreat of German soldiers by later this year – playing on electoral policy), public focus is not quite so concentrated in this area at the moment.
is there any connection with oil and trade bilateral relations between Germany and Libya?
There is trade, yes, as with all the western nations, but not to the extent that it would be any more of a deterrent for Germany to cooperate with the Lybian freedom fighters than that of USA, France, Canada or any of the other nations that purchase oil from OPEC nations.
Germany reminds me of the people that walk around an old person getting mugged on a busy city street rather than get involved and do their deed for humanity. When is the LAST time Germany did something to help a nation besides themselves? I won’t be buying any Mercedes or Volkswagen in the future to help those selfish Germans who don’t help anybody but themselves.
Germans! Prove me wrong, please.
I can only agree. I live near the German border for a long time. Speak German fluently. You can see the change. GErman is concerned only for inside matters. Westerwelle ain’t the right person. Merkel tangled up in an election struggle.
But if you look at the Germans themselves they seem to do quite well. I travel a lot there. No alarming signs of another banking crisis. Everyone seems to be on a prosperous road. They lack any concern for the outside world. The example of the old person mugged up is perfect. They just look the other way.
In foreign politics it seems to be same. Also they have a feeling like we are the heart of Europe. Not realizing fully if all their neighbours go broke they can keep the overproduced motorcars for themselves. Maybe Merkel bets on China. Her biggest mistake ever.
Also prices have raised there sky high. One of the reasons not to buy there. Why pay double or more for the same product made in the whole EU. JUst because they print a sticker made in Germany.
Shame on Germany.
I don’t agree with the decision of the german government, but then again, at least with regard to the lybia question, neither do most germans nor the german press. But then to come here and just find random, at least partially totally unsubstantiated ranting is just sad.
Probably I shouldn’t even address this, but here goes.
1. Weird nazi references, seriously? Did you skip growing up?
2. @Skigalini How can you equate ‘the germans’ with actions of the government? At least Westerwelle was known as incompetent for a while, nothing new there. Also you do know that we are still in Afghanistan, Kosovo and a few other places, right? Or what exactly do you mean when you say ‘helping’`? If you meant disaster relief, I don’t think Germany does worse (but probably not better either) there then any other country, same goes for help for developing countries, though I know some Germans which are quite active there.
@kkk7777 Would you please elaborate how you ‘see the change’? Especially in comparison to say, your country, because a number of european countries are maybe more concerned with internal matters than they were in the past, not only Germany.
Through influx of money from the gov’t and again rising exports Germany weathered the crisis better than others, but also it was stronger before. While some German banks are still in danger especially because of risky foreign assets and low capitalization, the banking structure is more diverse, so consumers didn’t feel it as much as in say the US.
About ‘if neighbours go broke’, you do realize that the germany gov’t knows that, and that is one of the reasons why they sent lots of money to Euro countries in trouble? Yes, also a lot of german money.
Prices are high? Not higher than before. They are note even the highes in the EU. Just go across the border to the Netherlands and be ready to pay a lot more, even more so in Sweden or Denmark.
So pleasen, if you want to criticise, please do some reasearch before.
Thanks Step,
yes we germans are not the germans, as to see from outside, the same mistake like looking years for years at agypt, tunesia or libya now.
The government does other things, as we, the germans, voted for. But at one point, they do it right, if we had inside our country so many problems, and a lot more with the europe union, we paying lots of germans euros for Greece, Ireland, Spain or Portugese etc.
The french soarkozy and the itallian stallion berluskony had some more trouble to defend their political life and using this libya affair for their own opportunity.
Step21
Prices in the Netherlands are much lower. I used to travel a lot to Germany because in the past it was true. Sorry step21 but we are cheaper. Most Germans near the borderline have noticed that too. Concerns like Media Markt or Saturn have lower prices in neighbouring countries then in Germany itself. Compare and you know. The same goes for Amazon. Amazon de is sky high. Amazon uk is super low on the same DVD (printed in the EU)
Airplane tickets used to be cheaper in Germany. Even there the change is becoming obvious. An airplane ticket from lufthansa flying from Amsterdam to Frankfurt and then to Asia is cheaper then the same ticket from Frankfurt to Asia.
Some food products are still cheaper in Germany. But not much. The same for books. Please step21 compare. Big cities like Amsterdam kill Germany on cd,dvd or other luxury prices. The place is crowded with Germans. Just simple facts anyone can check out.
I don’t agree that Germany fully realizes that it needs its neighbours. We do realize this and worry a lot about their isolation. And don’t think Germany was the only country who put a lot of money inside funds to save the euro.