EU summit conclusions

In case you have nothing better to do this weekend, here is a wonderful exercise to make sense out of the EU summit conclusions: Empty your desk, put all former EC/EU treaties on the table, also the constitutional treaty! Now, have a look at the draft IGC mandate (the presidency proposal before the summit) and compare it with the official summit conclusions. I can ensure you that you will need all other treaties to get a basic understanding of the new “reform treaty”. You will also get an idea what was discussed in Brussels in the last days (and nights).

It seems the EU summit produced one of these typical compromises. Most of the innovations of the constitutional treaty (which already was a suboptimal compromise) were saved. However, it is a big step forward for the EU!

But especially Polish and British demands have been included in the new compromise. The striking thing is that both countries already signed up to the constitutional treaty and watered down the provisions in the negotiations leading to the treaty. Both governments managed to flood the IGC mandate with additional footnotes, declarations and unilateral declarations….On the other side, France and The Netherlands (that actually had more reasons to demand changes…) were rather quiet.

The summit was also a diplomatic battle and a big theatrical show with late night veto threats and early morning compromises. The Kaczynski twins were in the centre of attention and managed to postpone the double majority system until 2017. However, there is the danger that the Polish strategy (non diplomatic language + lack of allies + constant veto threats) might backfire in the long run. At least the image of the Polish government is now totally ruined across Europe. Everyone already seems to wait for the next elections….

In sharp contrast to the Polish strategy, Tony Blair managed to get everything he wanted in a very diplomatic way, even though some of the ‘red lines’ were obviously designed to please the press and, of course, to enable Gordon Brown to get around a referendum!

Once again, Angela Merkel managed to achieve a diplomatic victory but for the first time she showed signs of annoyance (with Poland) and isolated Poland during the summit with the threat of calling for an IGC without Poland (this possibility was also mentioned on this blog). Ultimately, this seemed to have an impact on the twins…

To sum it up: business as usual in Brussels. Only that the result is not simple but complicated. Compared with the constitutional treaty, the reform treaty will be even harder to understand for non -lawyers. And last but not least, the debate about the constitution and the reform of the EU is finally over (at least for the next 5 years or so…).

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4 Comments

  1. We were so close just two years ago… I am now inclined to believe that little further progress is possible without introducing a federal core/vanguard. There are no enthusiastic pro-Europeans among the younger generation of British politicians, simply a generation gap. The only exception are the Lib Dems, with both Chrish Huhne and Nick Clegg keen on further integration. Even if there is a hung parliament and Lib Dems join Lab it’s improbable that they would demand “more Europe”…So the federal core seems to be the best way forward; what do you think?

  2. As you have said the new treaty is really about nothing at all, the real treaty was signed on the 28th of March 2007, and is known as the Declaration of Berlin.

    What the very recent EU summit that took place on the 21st and the 22nd of this month was all about was introducing a one Tony Blair for approval as the diplomatic newly appointed three year term president of the Revised Roman Empire.

    It seems that he has met with approval by all of the 27 nations attached to the EU?

    Events are really moving now at an extremely blistering rate to the complete extermination of life on this planet as we know it. After all isn’t that the real job of the Beast, and as such relative to Blair I have noted the following:

    • A new compromise deal has been reached on an EU treaty.

    • Retiring British Prime Minister Tony Blair has been touted as being the first ever full time EU president thereby making the likelihood of his being the Antichrist a stronger possibility than ever before.

    • Dubya has offered Blair the job of Middle East special envoy making the probability of his reaching a compromise deal very similar to the treaty of Daniel Chapter 9, verse 27 a real probability. Blair may be on the first horse, the white horse, of the four horsemen of the apocalypse.

    • Blair has gone to Rome to meet with the Pope to convert to Catholicism to be in line with Rome to prepare for the presidency of the Revised Roman Empire.

    • Prepare now for the return back onto the earth of the Lord Jesus Christ, as it looks very much to me like the world may be on the verge of seeing the Beast of Revelation achieve his power base of the EU?

    Even though it may be a little too soon to jump at shadows events really do look like events may be heading in that direction.

    Robert

  3. Tomáš, I agree, actually the momentum for any deeper integration has somewhat disappeared. Probably the last sign of further integration was the “Laeken declaration” back in 2001 and the following convention, which was at the time a major improvement in involving a broad range of stakeholders in the debate…even though the participation could have been higher most of the people have forgotten about it!

    Generally, I am very open to federalist ideas and since I come from a federal country myself, I have always been puzzled by the lack of general understanding of the concept especially in the UK. In a way we already have core EU (Euro, Schengen, Pruem), the problem seems to me that building up parallel (federal) institutions is not feasible. However, I think the only way forward is developing closer integration within smaller groups of states (actually a federal concept: innovations often come from one or more federal entities and, if successful, other entities join in and in the end it might become the rule for everybody).

    Unfortunately I cannot comment on the lack of pro-EU politicians in the UK since I am not following the domestic debate closely enough. From abroad it looks as if the yellow press ruled and EU enthusiastic politicians are in a way afraid to speak up…but that is probably a bit superficial!

    Robert, I think you do exaggerate. Religious christian fundamentalism has left the EU long time ago…and Tony Blair will certainly not the one to bring it back. I strongly disagree with your apocalyptic take on the EU and I think there is absolutely no evidence in this direction.

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